Despite everything, NAR hasn't lost many members

🪖 Good Morning, Tuesday! Hope you had a restful time celebrating our veterans.

Today's newsletter is 638 words — a 2.5-minute read.

1. 11% increase in new-home sales for 2025 and an 8% for 2026, NAR’s Lawrence Yun predicts

National Association of Realtors (NAR) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun predicted on Friday that home sales will increase during the next two years, while mortgage rates will likely hover around 6%.

Yun analyzed the state of the residential real estate market and shared his 2025-2026 outlook during a forum at the 2024 NAR NXT, The REALTOR Experience in Boston.

After a challenging 2023 and 2024, Yun projected that new-home sales will increase by 11% in 2025 and 8% in 2026, while the median home price will rise by 2% in both years, along with an increase in existing home sales.

2. NAR hasn’t lost many members

The National Association of Realtors announced yesterday that its membership has held steady, despite challenges in the industry and predictions that many agents would leave the organization.

As of Oct. 31, NAR membership is at 1,526,631, which is on track to be the fourth-highest all-time level; NAR reported this on the final day of its annual meeting.

NAR is forecasting an 8% decline next year, noting that there is typically a lag between a down market and changes in membership. The group expects to lose about 126,000 agents next year and close 2025 with 1.4 million members.

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3. Catch up quick

🇺🇸 Veterans make up 6.1% of the 18+ civilian population in Texas. (kxan)

📝 Key updates from the NAR NXT annual conference board meeting. (NAR)

🏠 Trump tariffs would result in homebuilder price increases. (CNBC)

✅ NAD finds Realtor.com's “#1 Site” claim supported. (BBBPrograms)

⚖️ Side files restraining order against Alexander brothers for allegedly moving loan collateral. (NoteServicingCenter)

💼 Opendoor lays off 300 workers after 3Q loss. (AllSides)

🎤 Fun read: 12 best real estate podcasts for agents & brokers. (HousingWire)

4. Fed cuts rates again

The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by a quarter-point on Thursday in response to the steady decline in the once-high inflation that had angered Americans.

The rate cut follows a larger half-point reduction in September, and it reflects the Fed’s renewed focus on supporting the job market as well as fighting inflation, which now barely exceeds the central bank’s 2% target.

Thursday’s Fed rate cut reduced its benchmark rate to about 4.6%, down from a four-decade high of 5.3%. The Fed had kept its rate that high for more than a year to fight the worst inflation streak in four decades.

5. Texas housing manufacturers’ six-month projections include significant production, sales increases

The October Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) indicates a positive outlook for the manufactured housing industry, with increased production, sales, and business activity expected over the next six months.

Respondents predict a rise in out-of-state shipments and attribute past sales softness to election uncertainty, which may ease soon following Donald Trump's recent re-election.

Hiring demand and labor costs are expected to grow, though supply chain challenges and material costs may also rise, partly due to hurricane recovery efforts in the Southeast U.S.

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